Category Archives: Economics

[2020-01-21] ?Recession 2020 — 13 Signs That Recession will be Global and Worse than 1929 !! – The Atlantis Report

?Recession 2020 — 13 Signs That Recession will be Global and Worse than 1929 !!

Today, the US debt is over $23 trillion and growing. There’s a very real possibility that a byproduct of any slowdown in the economy could lead to debt default, the interest on the debt costing over $500 billion each year. With the reduced federal revenues that a recession would cause, the odds of the deficits increasing each year will grow until eventually it will be nearly impossible to service the debt without cutting expenses to the bone – including defense, btw – to forestall default.

It is a dire situation being made even worse by the Trump administrations racking up over $1 trillion deficits, still counting, and growing.

The predictions are now coming in thick and fast. It appears that there is a foregone conclusion that 2020 is the date that crash 2.0 will wreak havoc once again. The next global financial crisis will strike in 2020, warns investment bank JPMorgan – sparked by automated trading systems.

The global cycle has weathered a number of cycle-threatening events, including the debt ceiling issue in the US and the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013, the sharp fall in commodity prices in 2014 and China’s slowdown in 2015. True, global growth has been subpar until the synchronous recovery took hold from 2017 to 2018. But we have been lucky enough to avoid dipping back into recession.

The global economy is heading into a recession. At least that is the fear after months of warning signs from the engine of global trade, which has spluttered this year. Here we examine 13 clues that the trend, after ten years of expansion, could be backward.
Welcome to The Atlantis Report.

Over the last few months, there have been some startling leading indicators that we might witness a global recession sometime soon. An unlikely culmination of multiple factors is leading to this.

US-China trade war.
India’s GDP slowdown.
The Brexit turmoil.

Major economies worldwide have shown signs of economic slowdown or even contraction in Q2 2019. A quick look at the largest economies confirms the apprehensions.

US economy grew by 2.1% (annualized) in Q2 2019, down from 3.1% in Q1 and the slowest since Q1 2017.

China, the behemoth fueling a large chunk of global growth, witnessed a paltry 6.2% GDP growth, the lowest in 27 years, and even below the 6.4% recorded during the 2009 Financial crisis.
Japan beat GDP growth estimates in Q1 2019, but Q2 was a little slower.

Germany is the largest economy to actually shrink (by 0.1%) in Q2 (QoQ, compared to Q1 2019), reversing a decade long trend of growth.

As did the UK, for the first time in 7 years, shrinking by 0.2%, compared to 0.5% growth in Q1.

France also slowed down to 0.2%.

Finally, the second-largest Asian economy, India, is also slowing down, having recorded sub 6% GDP growth in Q1 2019. Also, both the real estate and the automobile industries are facing a slump.
Over the last six months, major stock market indices have barely budged, and in some cases like the Nikkei 225 has actually shrunk.
#1. The escalation in the US-China tariff war.

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?Recommended Economic and Financial books :
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes by Peter Schiff :

Bitcoin: The End Of Money As We Know It

The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System

[2019-01-21] full interview with legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones at Davos – CNBC

Paul Tudor Jones, chairman of JUST Capital and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corporation, joins “Squawk Box” to discuss the markets, interest rates, the world economy and more.Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones said the stock market today is reminiscent of the latter stages of the bull market in 1999 that saw a giant surge that ultimately ended with the popping of the dot-com bubble.“We are just again in this craziest monetary and fiscal mix in history. It’s so explosive. It defies imagination,” Jones said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It reminds me a lot of the early ’99. In early ’99 we had 1.6% PCE, 2.3% CPI. We have the exact same metrics today.”“The difference is fed funds were 4.75%; today it’s 1.62%. And back then we had budget surplus and we’ve got a 5% budget deficit,” Jones added. “Crazy times.”Asked if investors should sell now to avoid a blow-up like the one that took place in March of 2000, Jones said, “Not really. The train has got a long, long way to go if you think about it.”The legendary hedge fund manager and trader noted that the Nasdaq Composite more than doubled from a similar stage to the dot-com bubble top. “That’s a long way from now. At the top theoretically, rates [would] be substantially higher.”The stock market hit a peak in 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite approached 5,000 in early 2000 then dove thousands of points, crushing investors.Jones, founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corporation, warned that the new “curveball” to derail the bull market could be the outbreak of the coronavirus.“That’s a big deal. If you look at what happened in 2003 … stock markets sold off double digits. If you look at the escalation of the reported cases, it feels a lot like that,” Jones said. “There’s no vaccination. There’s no cure. … If I was an investor, I’d be really nervous.”The virus, stemming from Wuhan, China, has killed six people with confirmed cases in China totaling nearly 300 as of Monday, less than a week before Lunar New Year, when millions of Chinese travel at home and abroad.The Centers for Disease Control told Reuters Tuesday that a traveler from China was diagnosed with the first U.S. case of coronavirus in Seattle.

[2020-01-21] ‘Cash is trash’ in the 2020 market: Bridgewater Associates founder – CNBC

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins “Squawk Box” at the World Economic Forum in Davos to discuss what he’s watching in the markets for 2020.Ray Dalio, founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, said Tuesday that he thinks investors shouldn’t miss out on the strength of the current market and that they should dump cash for a diversified portfolio.“Everybody is missing out, so everybody wants to get in,” Dalio said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switerzland.Dalio advised having a global and well-diversified portfolio in this market and said the thing people can’t “jump into” is cash.“Cash is trash,” Dalio said. “Get out of cash. There’s still a lot of money in cash.”Dalio’s firm, Bridgewater, manages about $160 billion. His declaration that investors should not stay on the sidelines is one he’s made before, as in 2018 he declared that those holding cash were “going to feel pretty stupid” for missing the market’s run-up.“You have to have balance … and I think you have to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio,” Dalio said, reiterating his call last year that the precious metal will be a top investment in the years to come.While he endorsed buying a bit of gold, he warned against more speculative investments like bitcoin.“There’s two purposes of money, a medium of exchange and a store hold of wealth, and bitcoin is not effective in either of those cases now,” he said.Dalio’s warning for the next five yearsDalio doesn’t think there will be an economic downturn this year and he said investors should look beyond the 2020 U.S. presidential election.“If you get a downturn – and there’s a good probability in the next [presidential] term you’ll get a downturn – and you don’t have effective monetary policy and you have people at each other’s throats, I’m worried about that,” Dalio said.“I would say there’s a 20% chance every year [of a downturn],” he added.Dalio believes the Federal Reserve is now in a position where it can no longer stimulate the U.S. economy like has in the past, notably by lowering interest rates.“You used to push a button and it would go up,” he said.But if U.S. interest rates continue to fall, and politics remain highly divisive, Dalio worries that the economy won’t be able to bounce back like it has in the past.“We’re going to have larger deficits which we’re going to print money for,” Dalio said. “At a point in the future, we still are going to think about what’s a store holder of wealth. Because when you get negative-yielding bonds or something, we are approaching a limit that will be a paradigm shift.”

[2020-01-22] Bridgewater Co-CIO Prince Calls the End of the Boom-Bust Cycle – Bloomberg

Jan.22 — Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, discusses the end of the boom-bust cycle, finding opportunity in market stability, and the firm’s investment strategy. He speaks at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

[2019-12-27] The Decay of the World Order As We Know It | A World on the Brink – Real Vision Finance

A World on The Brink begins with Episode One, where host Dee Smith examines the complex world we live in and looks at how we got to where we are today. In trying to gain an understanding, we delve back through history to the 300-year-old Westphalian Order and then move forward to the liberal international system and the rules based order. Together we explore how the many complex systems, agreements and structures from across centuries govern how our modern-day world functions and how in 2017 these systems are coming under increasing pressure.

[2019-12-30] ?Top 12 Countries On The Verge of Recession in 2020. – The Atlantis Report

Top 12 Countries On The Verge of Recession in 2020.
It’s evident that a global recession is at hand. Europe is on the verge, if not in one already. Japan’s GDP growth is less than 0.4%. China’s growth is plummeting precipitously. The U.S. is now seeing clear signs of a recession next year.
Simple; No one is borrowing any money, which is why interest rates are so low, and even negative Interest rates drop to encourage rich people and investors to borrow money. But now rich people and investors are actually paying countries like Switzerland to keep their cash .

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